Earthquakes and Fracturing: A Possible Connection?

A number of articles have been released in the last week or so speculating on the possibility that hydraulic fracturing was the cause of the recent earthquakes in Oklahoma, largely in response to the previously-unimagined 5.6 earthquake that shook Oklahoma and neighboring states in the Midwest…obviously a source of confusion seeing as Oklahoma isn’t exactly an earthquake-prone state.

I will provide links to a few articles at the end of this post, but I wanted to muse for a moment on how real this causal relationship might be.

First of all, what is “fracking?”

Hydraulic fracturing, or simply ”fracking,” is a process by which modern technology seeks to obtain oil reserves found underground.  Many have heard of the large (or even enormous, depending on who you listen to) reservoirs of oil and natural gas in the continental United States but what isn’t always articulated is that these fossil fuels are contained within layers of underground rock.  The idea behind fracturing is to drill a well into the ground, detonate (small) explosives deep within this rock layer, pressurize the well with water and other (highly) toxic chemicals to induce the flow of the oil and gas and then pump it out.

Now, before I even touch on the earth-moving subject, I should point this out:  there are a number of health and safety concerns with hydraulic fracturing already.  The EPA has yet to obtain from the oil companies a list of the highly toxic chemicals, and indeed has exempted the oil companies from some safety requirements.  There are numerous articles and reports you can find on the internet that point to fracking as a cause of cancer, groundwater contamination (and not on a small level either), and other environmental damage.

But wait…can fracking cause earthquakes?

The answer is easily…maybe.  Take Oklahoma as an example: before 2009, there were an average of 50 quakes in Oklahoma per year.  Then, in 2010, that number increased to 1,047.  The presumption is that this is a direct result of hydraulic fracturing…and an oil company in the United Kingdom recently admitted that their fracking operation led to seismic activity.  In addition, there have been other instances where much less than something as sophisticated as hydraulic fracturing resulted in seismic activity (like a dam filling a lake with water; see articles below for details).  Nevertheless, even the most vocal are merely saying that there is a connection between fracking and seismic activity; they are not saying (yet) that there is a direct connection, though one could certainly make that argument.  Some are arguing that the amount of actual activity that is being done underground isn’t enough to cause earthquakes on such a scale (and certainly not on the scale of a 5.6 earthquake).

Not being a scientist myself, I cannot accurately say one way or the other.  However, I do think that I can bring some common sense to the conversation, and my first thought is this:  how do we know what fracking does?  That is to say, we don’t have cameras watching the fracking process occur miles underground.  For all we know, the fissures created by the explosions  – even small explosions – are much larger than we would anticipate.  And that doesn’t even have to be a universal truth; maybe it’s just in one or two places where explosions used to create the fractures cause more underground movement than we would suspect.

In response to those who argue that the underground activity from fracking is insufficient to cause earthquakes, I would argue that little things we do all the time have huge consequences.  That’s simply a fact of life, from my perspective.  Those who believe that humanity is causing climate change are accepting that human activity on a small scale does impact the larger environment.  Even if removing oil was all that happened underground, we are removing liquid mass from deep underground.  At some point, there comes a time when there are holes and caves underground that do not have structural support to stay open.  So, when there is a collapse, it becomes more than just a cave collapse; it’s an earthquake.  And (potentially) the longer that area goes without collapsing, the larger the collapse will be when it does occur.

Okay…so let’s stop hydraulic fracturing!

And here’s where I think that we run into the real problem.  Based on the articles I perused and the points I just made, it certainly does seem likely, though not certain, that fracking causes earthqaukes.  But that is really not the point.  As I pointed out earlier, the EPA has relinquished a lot of its powers of enforcement over the hydraulic fracturing industry.  Why?  Because we in the United States are very focused (perhaps even…obsessed?) with finding the fuel necessary to power our economy, keep our cars going, our lights on, and so forth.  Energy is a fundamental part of our nation’s very existence.  The hydraulic fracturing industry has the potential to meet our energy needs for some time to come.  In a lot of ways, I believe that in spite of a few jostles every now and then, people will not turn against hydraulic fracturing unless it can be said to cause a major, destructive earthquake…and the reality is, even though a 5.6 is significant for a region of the world that has previously had very few earthquakes at all, a 5.6 is nothing compared to a 6.0 or a 7.0.

Which, to me, is kind of sad that, if hydraulic fracturing is causing earthquakes, most people will focus more on the pros – jobs, energy, economic development – than on the possibility of some major catastrophe.  Who knows, maybe such a catastrophe will never happen and the central midwest will just have to get used to a few jostles every now and again…but with the kind of crazy weather everyone has been having lately, I’m leaning more towards the line of, “Let’s not cause any more natural disasters than we have to.”

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

SfC

References

Is Gas Fracturing Inducing Earthquakes?

Did Fracking Cause the Virginia Earthquake?

Fracking Pros and Cons:  Weighing in on Hydraulic Fracturing

A Year of Incredible Weather Events

Note:  I am not going to cover all the weather events everywhere that have shattered records and turned heads in the last 10 months, but I will briefly mention the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami in Japan, earthquakes in Turkey and New Zealand, historic flooding in Australia in January, and the record-breaking flooding currently taking place in Thailand.  These too deserve mentions as part of a very turbulent and extraordinary 10 months when it comes to the weather.

I will also warn that, as a resident of the Midwestern United States, I will most likely give extra coverage to the weather events that directly affected me, simply because I have personal experience with them.  I will attempt to be fair in my evaluations of non-local weather phenomena as well.

First of all, we began this year with:

Snowmageddon:  February 2011

Affected areas:  Northern, central & southern Midwest; East Coast

Very few of us in the Midwest can quickly forget the incredible snowstorm that slammed at least a third of the United States in early February.  I was attending a state-funded public university whose enrollment numbered in the tens of thousands, and the university was completely shut down for three days (to my knowledge, an unprecedented event).  Of course, some of our classes weren’t meeting even after that if the professors couldn’t escape from their own residences.  Friends of mine who attend the high school from which I graduated had two weeks out of school.  Chicago – not exactly a city unequipped for wintry weather – was completely shut down.  Overall, a stunning weather event that seemed likely to be the weather event of the year.  Sadly, we were all mistaken.

The Tornado Super-Outbreak: April 2011

Areas affected:  Midwestern and southern United States; Alabama hit especially hard

Tornadoes do happen; it wasn’t like this was the first time that tornadoes hit.  What was so remarkable about this event was watching the national weather and watching vast lines of tornado-producing storms tracking across multiple states, leaving behind them vast stretches of devastation that boggles the imagination.  The most destruction was felt in Tuscaloosa, Alabama; a major tornado descended in a major city doing damage on a scale that seemed like it was out of a weather disaster film, only this was no Hollywood production; this was real life.  Again, this was an event that seemed unrepeatable in its devastation; the Weather Channel just this last week released their data that indicates that this tornado outbreak was on par with the most destructive tornado outbreak in United States history.  No small deal…but hardly the last time we’d see devastation on such a scale.

Historic Flooding of the Mississippi River:  May 2011

Areas affected:  Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana

I think this weather event was less reported on, but it was still significant.  Heavy rains in Missouri, Arkansas, and further upstream of the Missouri River all converged to create a level of flooding of the Mississippi river that was on par with the historic flooding of the Mississippi during the Great Depression (and, ironically during another national economic downturn).  Many towns several feet above the Mississippi were inundated with water and many thousands of crops were annihilated by too much moisture.  Ironically, parts of the United States would soon be asking for even more.

Joplin Tornado:  May 2011

Areas affected:  Joplin, Missouri

I have always had a primal fear of tornadoes, to the point of being a recipient of some ridicule when I was much younger.  Yet even I had never imagined that something like this could happen…and I was within 100 miles of Joplin when this event took place.  One tornado striking one town killed more people than the Super-Outbreak a month earlier, destroying many thousands of homes and businesses and slicing a big gash through the heart of the town.  The only silver lining for Joplin has been a very positive out-flowing of generosity from their neighbors not only in Missouri but around the United States and the world.  Extreme Makeover recently built seven homes in seven days for seven different surviving families of the Joplin disaster.  Sadly, that is a drop in the bucket compared to all of the years worth of rebuilding that it will take for Joplin to fully recover…and the psychological wounds from that kind of event will likely never fade.

Historic Drought:  Summer 2011 (still ongoing)

Areas affected:  Southern United States, Texas hit especially hard

The northern Midwest started the year with record rainfall, yet starting in the summer, huge portions of the southern United States have had no rain.  Texas, which was already covered by significant drought in April, has felt the full force of an unending dry heat wave.  Meteorologists are saying that it will take many years for the state to recover (assuming consistent rainfall), and in the meantime many major cities of Texas are having to crack down on water consumption just to get by.  News agencies have caught wind of the fact that peanut butter prices are about to increase by as much as 30% due to the drought killing crops, but peanuts aren’t the only food affected; many millions of acres of farmland have failed to produce viable crops, meaning that food prices across the board are likely to increase…a very significant strain on many global citizens already struggling to put food on the table at night.  If people didn’t have reason to be frustrated with rising living costs and falling wages, they might now.
Hurricane Irene: August 2011

Areas affected:  Eastern and Northeastern United States

Irene was probably one of the only major weather events that received proper publicity.  For a time, it looked like Irene would be a major hurricane as it closed in upon New York City and images of shattering skyscrapers and The Day After Tomorrow filled our minds.  Thankfully, the disaster was not that bad…but that’s hardly a comfort to the people who lived through it.  Torrential rains brought upon mudslides and forced people well inland from their homes.  Others were left trapped in their own homes because the rains washed out roads and bridges, meaning that it took days for road crews to get aid to some people.  And if one round of torrential rain wasn’t enough…

Tropical Storm Lee:  September 2011

Areas affected:  Southern, Eastern and Northeastern United States

After dropping tons of rain in Louisiana (scarring some people into suspecting another Hurricane Katrina), moisture from the remnants of Lee raced to the northwest and dumped more rain on the region that had just suffered from a major blow from Irene.  The one-two punch of the two systems dumped more rain in parts of New England in a month than some places get in a year.  Again, I find it remarkable that the two systems weren’t stronger; if they had been, there’s no telling how much damage could have been caused.  But even then, New England can’t seem to catch a break.

Snowtober:  October 2011 (still ongoing)

Area affected:  Eastern and Northeastern United States

Well, I suppose the good news is that it feels like we’ve come full circle.

A freak storm that developed off of the defunct Tropical Storm Rina’s moisture combined with unseasonably low temperatures to create a snow storm that easily matches the one we in the Midwest had eight months ago.  It isn’t often that Halloween anywhere gets canceled from major snowstorms, but this is what happened.  Millions were left without power due to tree collapses (since many trees hadn’t shed their fall leaves) and more chaos and devastation carpeted the same region, which has now been hit by three major weather events in two months.

Very Short Thought

As I stated earlier, I almost wish that I could take the time to recount all of the weather events that have affected the rest of the world and not just the United States, but I fear that time would fail me.  Suffice it to say that this has been an incredible year for weather disasters.  Many people are already saying that it is global warming…and I must say that I can see why.  As I have articulated on this blog before, I find myself in the camp of Global Warming skeptics.  Not to say that I am dismissing all of these events altogether; I’m certain that one could make a compelling argument as to why these are evidences of global warming.

However, rather than starting a debate that I cannot finish at the end of my blog post, let me simply say this:  when I think of all the weather disasters the Northeastern United States has suffered from for two months, I find myself thinking of how Texas hasn’t seen almost any rain…and I wonder if perhaps the weather patterns have simply shifted the moisture away from certain places (like Texas) into others (the Northeastern U.S.).  Does that mean it’s not global warming?  No.  Theoretically, any number of strange and odd weather patterns could emerge if global warming was happening.

However, strange weather patterns alone are not proof of global warming.  These weather events, though bizarre and awe-inspiring for sure, can be explained by a simple misalignment of traditional weather patterns to bring greater amounts of weather-inducing factors to certain areas and shift them away from others.  And such a misalignment may be entirely natural to happen every hundred years or so, yet how would we know?

Well, whatever happens, I hope my readers are buckling down for a hard – and interesting – winter.

SfC

Earth Day Thoughts: Global Climate and Malthusian Scare

Global Warming.  It’s happening, right?  Ever since Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, everyone has just assumed that global warming is a real thing, and based on many scientists’ stances toward climate change, we need to reduce carbon emissions and try to save the world from some kind of The Day After Tomorrow scenario.

Well, perhaps not.  Here’s a post by a fellow blogger which is entitled “Earth gives us an Earth Day present:  Arctic sea ice is highest for this date in 8 years.” In summary, the author points to recent studies that indicate that the ice in the arctic sea has actually returned to a near-normal level.  So…how does this fit in with global warming?  “Well…it’s global cooling, which is caused by global warming, which is caused by people.”  Does anyone else detect something amiss in this?  Because this is really what some scientists are saying:  that global cooling is the natural result of global warming.  So wait a minute…that sounds oddly like a cycle:  a global warming trend causes ice cap melting, which causes in influx of cooler air into the world’s oceans, which brings about a trend of global cooling, which causes the ice caps to refreeze.

Now personally, I at this point have decided that human activity has little to do with this global climate.  I am not saying that human activity doesn’t affect the climate; for certain, pollution, urban sprawl, and other such human issues cause environmental damage.  What I am saying is that, based on the data we have, the climate really is cyclic, not just in that it’s a cycle itself, but it’s built with cycles on top of cycles on top of cycles, and I highly doubt that after 100 years of our current technologically advanced culture, we will have all of that figured out.

Let us suppose, however, for the sake of argument, that human activity does affect global climate.  So the world gets a little warmer…which means that it gets a little cooler next time around in the cycle, which the next warm cycle counterbalances, and so on until we’re approximately where we’ve started.  Now, legitimately, if enough of a global warming trend occurs that all the ice caps melt and the world is drowned, that would be an…apocalyptic problem.  However, that is not what the data we have is forecasting.

Now, if there’s been two alarmist trends over the last 50 years, it has been the fears of the changing global climate (cooling during the 60′s, warming during the 90′s) and the Malthusian scare:  “The world is overpopulated! There aren’t enough resources for everyone!”  As a result, many modern philosophers have proposed euthanasia, abortion, and other such measures to help control the world’s overwhelming population.

Well, it appears that the Malthusian scare might be a total farce as well.  A recent article called “Sleepless in Shanghai” has stated that the very opposite of a Malthusian scare may soon occur.  Instead of world overpopulation, we may soon be experiencing world underpopulation.  Let me explain: in most developed countries on Earth, the birth rates are falling.  I remember when I was younger, the average children per family in the United States was 2.3.  Recently, I’ve heard that it’s dropped to 2.1.  Now, the Malthusian alarmists will say, “That’s good!  We need fewer people to feed!”  But wait a minute, let’s think about the effects that this is having and is going to have.

First of all, overpopulation is a localized problem.  There’s cities in the United States that have hundreds of people per square mile, and there’s places in the United States that have become wilderness because there’s less than one person per square mile, and that’s just in the United States.  The majority of the world’s population is concentrated in Asia: China and India alone have 3 billion people – over half of the human population on Earth is concentrated in two countries that are no larger than the United States and Canada.

Now, the real concern with the overpopulation debate is the need for resources:  The more people there are, the more resources need to be produced for them to consume.  Well, if people are really concerned with this overpopulation thing, then why aren’t people simply suggesting that we stop sending so much food to the United States and send more of it to Asia?  After all, we’re only 300,000,000 people, while China and India come together to possess about 10 times that number of people, yet the United States alone controls and consumes over half of the resources produced on the planet – in fact, one figure I’ve heard says that’s actually closer to 2 out of 3 global resources are consumed in the United States.  But most people don’t want fewer, scarcer resources in the United States.  They see a problem, but they aren’t willing to change their lifestyle in order to help fix the problem.

So, what about underpopulation? To be honest, I think underpopulation may become a far more real problem than the Malthusian scare.  For example, Social Security in the United States is under a constant threat now from the Baby Boomers.  Why?  Because not enough young people are working to support the older, more numerous generation.  (Interestingly, recent statistics have shown that approximately 50 million people have died in the last 50 years in the United States from abortions.  Now, I don’t care whether you think it’s right or wrong; that’s still 50 million fewer people that are working to support our faltering economy).  That’s just scratching the surface too; imagine how bad the housing market will be when we have too many houses and not enough people to live in them.  Yes, this is a financial disaster in the making.

Oh, and this article also points out that China, infamous for it’s famed one-child policy, is now encouraging their couples to have 2 instead of 1.  Why?  Because they’re having the same problems we are.  Their economic system is threatened.  Perhaps we should take some clues from them.

Now, inevitably, some people would say, “Well, these are all problems for the future.  Why should I care?  I like how things are right now.”  Ah…I hear these words, and the word “selfish” sneaks to the front of my mind.  So, I would say that if you don’t care enough for your children to try to give them the best kind of culture and future they can have, then I would say go ahead and don’t have any children.  Live on your thrones of materialism…and don’t expect me to be very sympathetic when you’re freaking out because the world is falling apart.

Okay, rant complete.

SfC

An Overview of Camp

For the past week, I have been at a church camp that I have attended since I was in Junior High school. However, instead of going as a camper like I did for a couple of years, I have gone for the last three years as a junior counselor at a young elementary age camp.

Over the years, I have become well acquainted with the close circle of people who counsel there on a regular basis; many of them are my age or slightly younger. We all share the same interests, at camp and away from it, and I believe this to be why I have become such a good friend with the people who go there as well. Of course, there are senior counselors (people several years older than me) there as well and they are very great to get along with.

However, this year was exceptionally good, and the quality of the camp is always decided by the campers. Twenty-three young campers accepted Christ into their heart throughout the week and others that had been Christians in the past renewed their commitments. In addition, they were mostly easy to get along with, so there were no major discipline issues. Several of them displayed great insight and very deep questions as well as greatly perceptive minds and joyous hearts.

My role in the team of the counselors for the week had a couple of parts: I was the assistant to the drama/skits class, one of the classes which they have for the campers throughout the week (others include archery and puppets, which I have helped with in the past, as well as canoeing, arts & crafts, fishing, chess, and various other activities). I took my MP3 player with me, so they used my Pink Panther music (to go along with their theme of mystery) as well as a couple of other songs for Late Night Antics. I also ended up being their sound techy because their real techy was also one of the hosts of the Late Night Antics and he couldn’t host and manage the sound at the same time, so as a result, I have also received a basic understanding in how to operate a soundboard and the various parts of an audio system.

There were other good experiences as well; the guys that I counseled with were all into the same sorts of things that I am, so we had some very good conversations about many things, including our common faith. One of these friends in particular (who had also read Lewis’ Mere Christianity) said that he has come to realize that if Christianity could be summed up in one word, it would be Love; that, in all of our efforts to spread Jesus’ name (and to convert atheists especially), the focus must not be on proving them wrong (to show that we are right, which is selfishness), but to love them first and foremost (in the Christian sense of wishing them well and not harm, even to the point of sacrifice). That is the kind of thinker this friend of mine is, and it was good to have these conversations.

In addition, although I didn’t read a tremendous amount from the Bible, I did end up reading three-fourths of Mere Christianity again, as part of my reading log. Another counselor there advised me to buying and reading Why So Many Gods. I don’t know if I can, seeing as how I already have a tremendous reading line-up. However, I was grateful for the reference.

I also got into a little brainstorming session with one of the other younger counselors there, who helped me come up with ideas for navies in the novel I am writing as well as thinking about how having magic and humanoid races with special capabilities (flight, living underwater, etc.) would affect navy combat in different situations. Also, I got some ideas (most of which are still raw) for personality traits from a couple of campers.

I believe that the speaker for the camp is also worth mentioning. He is a scientist and a professor of science at some college (not sure which one), and he believes that science and biology are evidence for a creator and actually provide evidence for Christianity (which I agree with). Anyhow, he used scientific experimentations (like using pH indicators to change colors of liquid and other such things) to teach the children about God and sin. He was a very effective communicator to me (perhaps because I am older and understood more of the scientific experiments than the campers) and to the campers as well.

He is also an acrylic painter and headed up the painting class at camp, where he produced a fantastic portrait and sparked my own interest in the arts. You see, I have always been interested in being an artist as one of my hobbies, but I have never really had an opportunity. I hope to learn how to effectively paint over time, to teach myself, really, though anyone with any advice would be quite welcome to give it.

Overall, I have returned from the camp feeling much, much better. Of course, there is much more that I could talk about, but when I try to put it all to words, it only falls short of relating how wonderful the whole experience was. So, I will simply leave this post where it is and state that there really is self-actualization in putting the good of others before yourself.

SfC