Earthquakes and Fracturing: A Possible Connection?

A number of articles have been released in the last week or so speculating on the possibility that hydraulic fracturing was the cause of the recent earthquakes in Oklahoma, largely in response to the previously-unimagined 5.6 earthquake that shook Oklahoma and neighboring states in the Midwest…obviously a source of confusion seeing as Oklahoma isn’t exactly an earthquake-prone state.

I will provide links to a few articles at the end of this post, but I wanted to muse for a moment on how real this causal relationship might be.

First of all, what is “fracking?”

Hydraulic fracturing, or simply ”fracking,” is a process by which modern technology seeks to obtain oil reserves found underground.  Many have heard of the large (or even enormous, depending on who you listen to) reservoirs of oil and natural gas in the continental United States but what isn’t always articulated is that these fossil fuels are contained within layers of underground rock.  The idea behind fracturing is to drill a well into the ground, detonate (small) explosives deep within this rock layer, pressurize the well with water and other (highly) toxic chemicals to induce the flow of the oil and gas and then pump it out.

Now, before I even touch on the earth-moving subject, I should point this out:  there are a number of health and safety concerns with hydraulic fracturing already.  The EPA has yet to obtain from the oil companies a list of the highly toxic chemicals, and indeed has exempted the oil companies from some safety requirements.  There are numerous articles and reports you can find on the internet that point to fracking as a cause of cancer, groundwater contamination (and not on a small level either), and other environmental damage.

But wait…can fracking cause earthquakes?

The answer is easily…maybe.  Take Oklahoma as an example: before 2009, there were an average of 50 quakes in Oklahoma per year.  Then, in 2010, that number increased to 1,047.  The presumption is that this is a direct result of hydraulic fracturing…and an oil company in the United Kingdom recently admitted that their fracking operation led to seismic activity.  In addition, there have been other instances where much less than something as sophisticated as hydraulic fracturing resulted in seismic activity (like a dam filling a lake with water; see articles below for details).  Nevertheless, even the most vocal are merely saying that there is a connection between fracking and seismic activity; they are not saying (yet) that there is a direct connection, though one could certainly make that argument.  Some are arguing that the amount of actual activity that is being done underground isn’t enough to cause earthquakes on such a scale (and certainly not on the scale of a 5.6 earthquake).

Not being a scientist myself, I cannot accurately say one way or the other.  However, I do think that I can bring some common sense to the conversation, and my first thought is this:  how do we know what fracking does?  That is to say, we don’t have cameras watching the fracking process occur miles underground.  For all we know, the fissures created by the explosions  – even small explosions – are much larger than we would anticipate.  And that doesn’t even have to be a universal truth; maybe it’s just in one or two places where explosions used to create the fractures cause more underground movement than we would suspect.

In response to those who argue that the underground activity from fracking is insufficient to cause earthquakes, I would argue that little things we do all the time have huge consequences.  That’s simply a fact of life, from my perspective.  Those who believe that humanity is causing climate change are accepting that human activity on a small scale does impact the larger environment.  Even if removing oil was all that happened underground, we are removing liquid mass from deep underground.  At some point, there comes a time when there are holes and caves underground that do not have structural support to stay open.  So, when there is a collapse, it becomes more than just a cave collapse; it’s an earthquake.  And (potentially) the longer that area goes without collapsing, the larger the collapse will be when it does occur.

Okay…so let’s stop hydraulic fracturing!

And here’s where I think that we run into the real problem.  Based on the articles I perused and the points I just made, it certainly does seem likely, though not certain, that fracking causes earthqaukes.  But that is really not the point.  As I pointed out earlier, the EPA has relinquished a lot of its powers of enforcement over the hydraulic fracturing industry.  Why?  Because we in the United States are very focused (perhaps even…obsessed?) with finding the fuel necessary to power our economy, keep our cars going, our lights on, and so forth.  Energy is a fundamental part of our nation’s very existence.  The hydraulic fracturing industry has the potential to meet our energy needs for some time to come.  In a lot of ways, I believe that in spite of a few jostles every now and then, people will not turn against hydraulic fracturing unless it can be said to cause a major, destructive earthquake…and the reality is, even though a 5.6 is significant for a region of the world that has previously had very few earthquakes at all, a 5.6 is nothing compared to a 6.0 or a 7.0.

Which, to me, is kind of sad that, if hydraulic fracturing is causing earthquakes, most people will focus more on the pros – jobs, energy, economic development – than on the possibility of some major catastrophe.  Who knows, maybe such a catastrophe will never happen and the central midwest will just have to get used to a few jostles every now and again…but with the kind of crazy weather everyone has been having lately, I’m leaning more towards the line of, “Let’s not cause any more natural disasters than we have to.”

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

SfC

References

Is Gas Fracturing Inducing Earthquakes?

Did Fracking Cause the Virginia Earthquake?

Fracking Pros and Cons:  Weighing in on Hydraulic Fracturing

Incredible Weather Events (Follow-Up)

Well, perhaps I posted too soon.

The unusual weather just keeps coming.  For one, a reader mentioned that I completely forgot about the unusual and unexpected “East Coast” Earthquake that rattled most of the northwestern United States mere days before Irene.

For two, this last weekend has seen a spike in seismic activity in Oklahoma.  The central midwest experienced the most powerful quakes - based out of Oklahoma – felt in the region for many years.  The article I have provided a link to also states that since 2009, the volume of seismic activity in Oklahoma has increased tenfold.  (In the spirit of my last post, I happened to be watching a news article about how hard a year Oklahoma has had, starting with Snowmaggedon; my thought was, “who hasn’t had a hard year due to weather at this point?”)

And just in case Alaska happens to be on your mind in response to that question, fear not; it looks like before the week is out, Alaska will be on the list of weather victims for the year, too.  The Weather Channel is reporting that a “superstorm” is descending on the “Last Frontier” state within a few days.  They are calling for hurricane-force winds across an area the size of Colorado as well as destructively powerful (freezing) surf that could cause massive coastal erosion.  So, more reasons to keep your eye on the weather these days, folks; there’s no telling what could happen.

Me, I’m personally hoping nothing originates from New Madrid.  That would be a heap of trouble for everyone.

Keep safe and warm.

SfC

A Year of Incredible Weather Events

Note:  I am not going to cover all the weather events everywhere that have shattered records and turned heads in the last 10 months, but I will briefly mention the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami in Japan, earthquakes in Turkey and New Zealand, historic flooding in Australia in January, and the record-breaking flooding currently taking place in Thailand.  These too deserve mentions as part of a very turbulent and extraordinary 10 months when it comes to the weather.

I will also warn that, as a resident of the Midwestern United States, I will most likely give extra coverage to the weather events that directly affected me, simply because I have personal experience with them.  I will attempt to be fair in my evaluations of non-local weather phenomena as well.

First of all, we began this year with:

Snowmageddon:  February 2011

Affected areas:  Northern, central & southern Midwest; East Coast

Very few of us in the Midwest can quickly forget the incredible snowstorm that slammed at least a third of the United States in early February.  I was attending a state-funded public university whose enrollment numbered in the tens of thousands, and the university was completely shut down for three days (to my knowledge, an unprecedented event).  Of course, some of our classes weren’t meeting even after that if the professors couldn’t escape from their own residences.  Friends of mine who attend the high school from which I graduated had two weeks out of school.  Chicago – not exactly a city unequipped for wintry weather – was completely shut down.  Overall, a stunning weather event that seemed likely to be the weather event of the year.  Sadly, we were all mistaken.

The Tornado Super-Outbreak: April 2011

Areas affected:  Midwestern and southern United States; Alabama hit especially hard

Tornadoes do happen; it wasn’t like this was the first time that tornadoes hit.  What was so remarkable about this event was watching the national weather and watching vast lines of tornado-producing storms tracking across multiple states, leaving behind them vast stretches of devastation that boggles the imagination.  The most destruction was felt in Tuscaloosa, Alabama; a major tornado descended in a major city doing damage on a scale that seemed like it was out of a weather disaster film, only this was no Hollywood production; this was real life.  Again, this was an event that seemed unrepeatable in its devastation; the Weather Channel just this last week released their data that indicates that this tornado outbreak was on par with the most destructive tornado outbreak in United States history.  No small deal…but hardly the last time we’d see devastation on such a scale.

Historic Flooding of the Mississippi River:  May 2011

Areas affected:  Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana

I think this weather event was less reported on, but it was still significant.  Heavy rains in Missouri, Arkansas, and further upstream of the Missouri River all converged to create a level of flooding of the Mississippi river that was on par with the historic flooding of the Mississippi during the Great Depression (and, ironically during another national economic downturn).  Many towns several feet above the Mississippi were inundated with water and many thousands of crops were annihilated by too much moisture.  Ironically, parts of the United States would soon be asking for even more.

Joplin Tornado:  May 2011

Areas affected:  Joplin, Missouri

I have always had a primal fear of tornadoes, to the point of being a recipient of some ridicule when I was much younger.  Yet even I had never imagined that something like this could happen…and I was within 100 miles of Joplin when this event took place.  One tornado striking one town killed more people than the Super-Outbreak a month earlier, destroying many thousands of homes and businesses and slicing a big gash through the heart of the town.  The only silver lining for Joplin has been a very positive out-flowing of generosity from their neighbors not only in Missouri but around the United States and the world.  Extreme Makeover recently built seven homes in seven days for seven different surviving families of the Joplin disaster.  Sadly, that is a drop in the bucket compared to all of the years worth of rebuilding that it will take for Joplin to fully recover…and the psychological wounds from that kind of event will likely never fade.

Historic Drought:  Summer 2011 (still ongoing)

Areas affected:  Southern United States, Texas hit especially hard

The northern Midwest started the year with record rainfall, yet starting in the summer, huge portions of the southern United States have had no rain.  Texas, which was already covered by significant drought in April, has felt the full force of an unending dry heat wave.  Meteorologists are saying that it will take many years for the state to recover (assuming consistent rainfall), and in the meantime many major cities of Texas are having to crack down on water consumption just to get by.  News agencies have caught wind of the fact that peanut butter prices are about to increase by as much as 30% due to the drought killing crops, but peanuts aren’t the only food affected; many millions of acres of farmland have failed to produce viable crops, meaning that food prices across the board are likely to increase…a very significant strain on many global citizens already struggling to put food on the table at night.  If people didn’t have reason to be frustrated with rising living costs and falling wages, they might now.
Hurricane Irene: August 2011

Areas affected:  Eastern and Northeastern United States

Irene was probably one of the only major weather events that received proper publicity.  For a time, it looked like Irene would be a major hurricane as it closed in upon New York City and images of shattering skyscrapers and The Day After Tomorrow filled our minds.  Thankfully, the disaster was not that bad…but that’s hardly a comfort to the people who lived through it.  Torrential rains brought upon mudslides and forced people well inland from their homes.  Others were left trapped in their own homes because the rains washed out roads and bridges, meaning that it took days for road crews to get aid to some people.  And if one round of torrential rain wasn’t enough…

Tropical Storm Lee:  September 2011

Areas affected:  Southern, Eastern and Northeastern United States

After dropping tons of rain in Louisiana (scarring some people into suspecting another Hurricane Katrina), moisture from the remnants of Lee raced to the northwest and dumped more rain on the region that had just suffered from a major blow from Irene.  The one-two punch of the two systems dumped more rain in parts of New England in a month than some places get in a year.  Again, I find it remarkable that the two systems weren’t stronger; if they had been, there’s no telling how much damage could have been caused.  But even then, New England can’t seem to catch a break.

Snowtober:  October 2011 (still ongoing)

Area affected:  Eastern and Northeastern United States

Well, I suppose the good news is that it feels like we’ve come full circle.

A freak storm that developed off of the defunct Tropical Storm Rina’s moisture combined with unseasonably low temperatures to create a snow storm that easily matches the one we in the Midwest had eight months ago.  It isn’t often that Halloween anywhere gets canceled from major snowstorms, but this is what happened.  Millions were left without power due to tree collapses (since many trees hadn’t shed their fall leaves) and more chaos and devastation carpeted the same region, which has now been hit by three major weather events in two months.

Very Short Thought

As I stated earlier, I almost wish that I could take the time to recount all of the weather events that have affected the rest of the world and not just the United States, but I fear that time would fail me.  Suffice it to say that this has been an incredible year for weather disasters.  Many people are already saying that it is global warming…and I must say that I can see why.  As I have articulated on this blog before, I find myself in the camp of Global Warming skeptics.  Not to say that I am dismissing all of these events altogether; I’m certain that one could make a compelling argument as to why these are evidences of global warming.

However, rather than starting a debate that I cannot finish at the end of my blog post, let me simply say this:  when I think of all the weather disasters the Northeastern United States has suffered from for two months, I find myself thinking of how Texas hasn’t seen almost any rain…and I wonder if perhaps the weather patterns have simply shifted the moisture away from certain places (like Texas) into others (the Northeastern U.S.).  Does that mean it’s not global warming?  No.  Theoretically, any number of strange and odd weather patterns could emerge if global warming was happening.

However, strange weather patterns alone are not proof of global warming.  These weather events, though bizarre and awe-inspiring for sure, can be explained by a simple misalignment of traditional weather patterns to bring greater amounts of weather-inducing factors to certain areas and shift them away from others.  And such a misalignment may be entirely natural to happen every hundred years or so, yet how would we know?

Well, whatever happens, I hope my readers are buckling down for a hard – and interesting – winter.

SfC